The following is a guest post by Tony George, courtesy of Tony George Sports, tonygeorgesports.com
I was elated and dejected when asked to do a Las Vegas Perspective of the Nebraska and Wisconsin Game this Saturday Night for HuskerZone.com. As a Husker Fan, and previous ESPN 1480 co-host of the Average Joe Sports Show in Lincoln, my first post on HuskerZone.com may displease many Husker Nation Fans! But this is strictly business!
Nebraska @ Wisconsin -9.5
Saturday October 1, 8:00pm EST
The mighty Huskers open up Big 10 conference action for the first time ever in Camp Randall in front of an anticipated wildly rabid and juiced up crowd on a national TV game. The biggest game without question to date in the Big 10 conference this year, the Huskers look to make their mark in this marquee matchup Saturday Night. Both teams enter in the Top 9 in country and both teams are physical and have great playmaking QBs.
At days end from the line perspective, Wisconsin opened up at -3 on the futures board back in August for this game at which I took them, however this week the line opened at -10 and jumped up to -10.5 before settling in after much action at -9.5 on Thursday. What warrants a line perspective jump almost a full TD in this game from the opening lines on the futures from oddsmakers to this one?
In short the vaunted Husker defense has failed to perform up to its usual game dominating standards. In 2 key games in Lincoln against schools that count, both Fresno State and Washington shredded the defense and rolled up huge yards in the process. NU took care of Washington by scoring 51, but Fresno’s Derek Carr tore up NU’s secondary with little pass rush and that contest was in doubt till late in the game. Rarely does someone come into Lincoln and go up and down the field making big plays against the blackshirts, but it has happened this year, at home, which is alarming to Husker Nation backers. Turnovers also have reared their ugly head for NU, and if that happens on the road in this game, it will be amplified on the scoreboard and hard to recover from.
Wisconsin has played no one of real stature yet which might be the saving grace in terms of public perception, but the better QB in this game lies with the Badgers and QB Wilson in terms of being an “all around” threat. The thing that Wisconsin has done is totally dominate those weak sisters like they were suppose to. QB Russell Wilson, A NC State transfer, he is a dual threat QB with a solid arm and great ability on the ground as well. With Wisconsin’s balanced attack, and over 40 ppg of production, in a very hostile environment, is going to be a huge challenge for Nebraska on both sides of the ball, in perhaps their toughest game of the season. That is a stark reality from an unbiased perspective.
The key here is Husker QB Martinez and his questionable ability to play from behind and having to throw to win, not his strong suit. I simply do not see NU running it between the tackles here against a good defense with active linebackers and moving the chains at will, so passing yards and big plays will be needed, and I just do not see it. I smell a Wisconsin win here and perhaps a convincing one as Jared Crick is not 100%, and NU’s defense could be overmatched, already giving up 27 ppg their last 3 games, 2 of them at home. Nebraska will rise to the occasion no doubt, but at days end Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS (against the spread) at home and the home field is worth 5 points in this game, especially at night.
Lay the wood: Wisconsin 35 – Nebraska 21
PS: It pains me to say that, but I’ll be rooting for the Skers anyway! One time I hope I am wrong.